Namibia cannot afford another fisheries collapse

As a representative of the environmental sector, the Namibian Chamber of Environment (NCE) expresses grave concerns regarding the recent decision by Cabinet to relax the 200 m isobath fishing restriction between 22°S and 24°S for the horse mackerel sector. Given past mismanagement of fisheries, the current state of the fisheries sector and that of the national economy, this short-sighted decision could have serious long-term repercussions.

Cabinet and the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Land Reform (MAFWLR) ought to learn from historical fisheries collapses and apply current scientific evidence to guide their decisions. While relaxing the fishing restrictions at this time may provide some immediate economic relief for job seekers in the fishing industry, it is likely to hurt the same people in the longer-term. It will then also negatively impact the marine ecosystem and the national economy. Without a healthy and productive fisheries resource, there can be no long-term fishing industry, no sustainable businesses, and no secure jobs.

Considering historical fisheries collapses, it is imperative for the Namibian government to adhere to science-based fisheries management while refraining from making expedient short-sighted and short-term decisions.

It is also vital that the Namibian government stands strong against pressure from fishing companies that harness trade unions and the false arguments of job creation and the national economy to squeeze ever greater quotas from a declining fisheries resource. This leads to a collapse of the fish stock, of jobs and of the marine economy. It also results in a collapse of healthy marine ecosystems.

1) Learning from historical fisheries collapses

Namibia has experienced two major fisheries collapses: the orange roughy collapse in 1998/99 despite clear warnings about the need for very conservative quotas in this long-lived and sensitive species, and the sardine (pilchard) final collapse in 2014.

Fisheries scientists have been recommending a moratorium on sardine fishing quotas since the 1990s, which the leadership in the fisheries ministry failed to implement. As a result, sardine stocks fell from an estimated 700,000 tons in 1991 to below 50,000 tons by 2015 (a 94.8% decline), and in subsequent years no significant sardine stocks were found during stock surveys.

If the horse mackerel fishery is similarly caused to collapse, Namibia’s marine fishing industry will be on life support, with few commercially viable fish stocks left to exploit.

Both the orange roughy and sardine collapses show how carefully the marine ecosystem ought to be managed. In the case of the orange roughy, commercial fishing was no longer viable after only six years of the industry’s existence. Fishing effort for this long-lived species concentrated on their spawning grounds, likely causing reduced reproduction and emigration from fishing areas.

The sardine collapse provides an even clearer warning. Scientists and managers knew that sardine stocks were in trouble for many years before any action was taken. Their persistent advice to impose moratoria were ignored until the stock had declined by 99.5% of its level in the 1960s. The economic consequences of ignoring scientific advice in favour of the industry’s short-term interests have been dire, including widespread job losses and significant shrinkage of the fishing sector’s contribution to GDP.

The ecological consequences of the collapse of this key species have been even more detrimental due to reduced energy transfer between plankton and higher trophic levels with species higher on the food pyramid having to switch to prey with lower nutritional value, resulting in population declines, breeding failures and reduced productivity. As an example, this has resulted in the collapse of marine seabirds such as penguins and gannets, which are now classed as endangered and in danger of extinction in Namibia, as a direct result of overfishing. Everything should be done to rebuild the sardine stock as an absolute priority – for jobs, the economy and the marine ecosystem.

These examples also illustrate the lack of responsibility of the private fishing sector who put pressure on government for quotas in the face of declining fish stock. They talk of jobs and the national economy, despite being fully aware that they are violating sustainable development principles and their actions are killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Within this context, Namibia simply cannot afford to lose another commercial fishery. Pushing the fish stocks to their limits by allowing fishing in spawning areas within the 200 m isobath and ignoring scientific advice puts thousands of livelihoods and the national economy at risk in the longer-term for the short-term gains of a few individuals.

2) The 200 m isobath restriction and evidence-based management

The 200 m isobath serves as a critical ecological boundary that protects key nursery and spawning areas for many fish species, including hake and horse mackerel, reduces impacts on sensitive benthic ecosystems, and supports stock recruitment. When spawning grounds are targeted, fewer fish will make it to adulthood and thus be able to reproduce. Fishing within the 200 m isobaths will lead to increased catches of smaller fish, removing even more individual fish from the population. This ultimately leads to further declining fish stocks.

If we wait until the fish stocks show signs of collapse before acting – as with the sardine disaster – it may be too late. Recovery is slow and far from guaranteed, requiring long fishing moratoria and consequent job losses. The horse mackerel stock is already showing signs that it is under pressure, which should trigger more precautionary management actions, not the relaxation of current restrictions.

Scientific indicators must guide all decision-making processes. Trends in horse mackerel biomass, changes in size at sexual maturity, and length-frequency distributions are critical measures of stock health. If these indicators show negative trends, a precautionary approach to management must be applied. Only if biomass increases and biological indicators show positive trends can one consider expanding the industry in ways that do not threaten the spawning areas in the 200 m isobath.

Serious measures should now be introduced to safeguard and rebuild stock, including the consideration of a moratorium on some species, including sardines, as well as significantly tightening regulations and enforcement on bycatch. With sufficient advance planning and cooperation between government and industry, mechanisms can be developed to support the sector during a fish stock recovery programme. This may include financial planning, profit retention strategies, and structured support measures. Difficult decisions of this nature are often necessary to secure long-term sustainability.

Another important measure needed for sustainable horse mackerel stock management, particularly for the shared stocks of Trachurus capensis, is a joint management plan with Angola. Such a plan is necessary also for the sardine (pilchard) stock and was recommended many years ago but with no action. Without coordinated regional management, efforts to protect these resources within Namibian waters will be undermined by continued exploitation elsewhere.

Fishing industries in Namibia and worldwide have shown an alarming lack of responsibility towards long-term sustainable management of fish stock. Their approach has generally been to take as much as they can and as quickly as they can, while putting increasing pressure on government regulators to increase quotas in the interests of the economy and jobs. And of course, their own direct interest. There is also evidence of deliberate bycatch and hidden catch.

One fisheries after another has collapsed worldwide, and Namibia has been no exception. It is therefore up to government to take a strong and firm line on sustainability, stock protection and strong regulations and enforcement. To date, Namibia has been weak, corrupt and complacent as fisheries have collapsed.

3) Dealing with pressures through good governance and transparent, accountable decision-making

There is growing concern that the horse mackerel fishery may be overcapitalised, with too many participants competing for limited biomass. Global experience shows that overcapitalised fisheries often collapse due to the economic difficulty of reducing fishing capacity. Expanding access to areas within the 200 m isobath risks exacerbating this problem rather than addressing its root causes.

The root of the problem often lies in governance challenges, including limited transparency and insufficient public accountability in fisheries management. Decisions regarding stock assessments, quota setting, and access to resources must be transparent and guided by science. These are national resources, and their management must reflect the long-term interests of the country as a whole.

Openness, transparency, accountability, and partnership are essential attributes of good governance and sustainable resource management. Strengthening these principles will improve decision-making and help ensure the long-term viability of Namibia’s marine ecosystem and fishing industry.

Conclusion

Relaxing the 200 m isobath restriction presents significant ecological and economic risks. The proper response to a declining fish stock is to reduce fishing pressure, not increase the pressure. This decision must be urgently reversed and replaced with evidence-based decisions that prioritise long-term sustainability for the benefit of our current and future generations.